Repost from Benedict Evans
Benedict Evans
Covid Strategies /
Scott Alexander is brilliant and his post describing the future and our long term relationship with COVID is a must read. Summary: COVID is likely never going away and so we need smart strategies to deal with it like giving vaccine manufacturers the ability to adapt their vaccine formulas in response to mutations without going back through the long FDA approval process. Think smart, play for the long game!
Repost from Scott Alexander
Will things get worse before they get better?
South Box Openings & Closings: January 2021 /
South includes: AL, GA, NC, SC, TN, VA
Openings: 46 stores
Ace Hardware Corporation :2
Aldi: 1
AMC: 1
American Freight: 1
Ashley Furniture: 1
Badcock Furniture: 1
Citi Trends: 1
Crunch Fitness: 3
Dollar General: 13
Dollar Tree: 1
Family Dollar Stores: 7
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 3
Haverty's Furniture: 1
Lidl: 1
Pet Supplies Plus Inc.: 1
Piggly Wiggly: 3
Planet Fitness: 2
Publix: 1
True Value Company: 1
Walgreens: 1
Closings: 38 stores
Ace Hardware Corporation: 2
AMC: 1
Ashley Furniture: 2
Bed Bath & Beyond: 4
Burlington Coat Factory: 1
CVS: 3
Dick's Sporting Goods: 3
Dollar General: 1
Family Dollar Stores: 1
Gabe's Discount: 1
Habitat for Humanity: 2
Michaels Stores: 1
O2 Fitness Club: 1
Office Depot: 4
Office Max: 2
Party City: 1
Petco": 3
Save-A-Lot: 4
Walgreens: 1
Texas Box Openings & Closings: January 2021 /
Openings: 17 stores
Ace Hardware Corporation: 1
Crunch Fitness: 1
CVS: 1
Dollar General: 5
Dollar Tree: 2
Family Dollar Stores: 4
Floor and Decor: 1
Planet Fitness: 2
Closings: 2 stores
Ace Hardware Corporation: 1
Michaels Stores: 1
Florida Box Openings & Closings: January 2021 /
Openings: 15 stores
Aldi: 2
Dollar General: 4
Family Dollar Stores: 3
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 2
LA Fitness: 1
Planet Fitness: 2
Walgreens: 1
Closings: 11 stores
Big Lots: 1
Citi Trends: 1
Kirkland's, Inc.: 1
Michaels Stores: 1
Office Depot: 3
Planet Fitness: 1
Save-A-Lot: 2
Staples: 1
Vaccine Access Toolkit /
All of us need to take strong positive action within our communities to help with the recovery from the coronavirus. I was shocked to read this posting because somehow during the lockdown I failed to realize that government action alone was not the solution. Instead action by individuals and business leaders would bring forth the solutions we need. Sometimes you missed the obvious and for me this was one of those times.
Thankfully, the genius, Tyler Cowen, through his writings on his blog shows the clear path forward. I hope you'll follow me in doing more this year to be the change that we want to see happen in the world. Wake up, it's time to get moving.
Repost from Marginal Revolution
In order to break down the information barrier, I partnered with my local faith community to set up a vaccine outreach program. We have a dedicated vaccine information email address and a website consolidating information about vaccine eligibility, sites, and benefits. We call community members who don’t have email, offer personal assistance making appointments and connecting to ride services, and provide information about best practices for riding safely in a car with masks and open windows. After vaccine appointments, we check in to see how they are feeling, make sure their second dose is scheduled, and offer to drop off comfort foods. One recipient replied, “It makes this daunting time just a little easier knowing there is someone out there to guide one through this process. My technology skills are minimal!”
By Margaret Scharle, for Oregon. We need much more of this.
Consumer Confidence /
How do we know if we are recovering from Covid? My number one metric is Consumer Confidence. If we can bring back confidence we will arrive safely at the otherside of this crisis. We all have to do are part and then it will truly be the roaring 20s. Onward!
How can you see the future? /
Here is what I use to see the future
How can you see the future? Unfortunately, there is no crystal ball, but the next best thing is the prediction markets that harvest the wisdom of the crowds to come up with the best guess for the future. Predictions based on betting, date back to 1503 when bets were placed to predict the next Pope.
What do you use? Please post it to the comments. #future #investing #retail #markets
Life After Covid? /
“Skate to where the puck is going and not where it has been” is a famous quote of the great hockey player Wayne Gretzky. How should we think about life in the world after Covid? Many experts believe that we will have beaten Covid within the next one to two years. Now, that's a long period of time, but it's important to keep that timeframe in perspective because it's only about as long as most people spend getting a master’s degree. So, I think it begs the question, what are you doing now to prepare for the roaring 20s? You certainly won't be locked up at home for the next decade. Over the long run nearly everything will return to its pre Covid norms. Are you skating to where the puck is going?
What happens to Fresh Market when their $800M in bonds come due in May 2023? /
Fresh Markets was bought by Apollo in 2016. They have a weak balance sheet with $800M of bonds that require 9.75% interest payments. Back in April, the Fresh Market bonds were selling for less than $0.50, but today they have rocketed up to $1.03 because COVID brought a strong increase in sales. Help me understand what happens to Fresh Market when sales return to pre-COVID levels?
Evolving with Creative Solutions /
Pay attention because the branch banking world is evolving. Recently, our Bank of America Branch closed in Orlando and we leased their building to another tenant. In addition, we worked with Bank of America to design and build this drive thru ATM. The world is always evolving with creative new solutions. Life without innovation is boring. There is no retail apocalypse. Simba beats Scar.
Instacart /
Instacart is planning an IPO. Right now the company is valued at $14B. What an amazing world we live in where you can build a business like Instacart in 5 years! Instacart today partners with more than 500 national, regional and local retailers, for nearly 40,000 stores across more than 5,500 cities. You need stores to make Instacart work - there is no retail apocalypse!
Open-Air REIT Stocks /
Major open-air retail REIT stocks had a major rally over the last 30 days and they have now recovered more than half of their losses. Clearly, investors see green shoots, but there is still a long way to go. As a group the REITs are trading at a huge discount to their NAV, net asset value. REITs own about 20% of major metro retail assets. Is the market telling us that the nimble entrepreneur shopping center owners will beat out the big corporate players? I'm rooting for the little guy!
Larry Paige /
I said to
Larry Paige…
"I fix networks, the real ones, not the online ones, we call them "shopping centers"
Larry Paige, the founder of Google once asked me what I did at a TED conference. I said, "I fix networks, the real ones, not the online ones, we call them "shopping centers" and they are the lifeblood of the US economy and its consumers." "That's cool." he said.
Florida Sales Summary - 2005-2020 /
Who turned out the lights? Retail investment sales crashed in 2020 nearly matching the catastrophic year of 2009. It hardly ever gets worse than that. Florida is a bellwether state in the US and we watch it like a hawk. Just multiply what's happening in Florida by 15 and that’s happening in the entire US. We’ve posted the details on all the retail property sales over $15M that occurred in the major metropolitan areas of Florida over the last three years on our blog.
Our reports include: prices, cap rates, buyers, sellers, brokers, NOI and even the vacancy at the time of sale. The more everyone knows about what's really happening the better off our marketplace will be. Onward!
Population Growth /
The United States is projected to grow by nearly 79 million people in the next 4 decades, from about 330 million to 404 million between 2020 and 2060. The population is expected to grow by an average of 1.8 million people per year between 2020 and 2060. The US needs population growth and productivity growth to fuel economic growth. Over 60% of the population gains will result from immigration and the balance will be from new births. Imagine 400M in the US - what an opportunity. Onward!
“Imagine 400M in the US - what an opportunity.”
It’s Been 13 Years Since The Last Recession /
History is on our side - they may well be the "roaring 2020's". The average time between recessions has grown from about two years in the late 1800s to five years in the early 20th century to eight years over the last half-century.
It’s been 13 years since the last recession began in Dec. 2007. That’s the longest we’ve gone without starting a new recession ever, going back to before the Civil War. Hopefully, the roaring 2020's will be a decade without any downturns.
Onward!
World Population /
When I was born there were only 3.0B people. Today there are nearly 8.0B and somehow, in the last 60 years, we managed to thrive. The world population is projected to reach 9.9 billion by 2050, an increase of more than 25% from the current 2020 population of 7.8 billion. Total fertility rates are below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman in 91 countries and territories, mostly in Asia and Europe, as well as in the United States. What a great time to be alive. Notice that the world's population growth rate is dropping like a rock. America is still the leader. Let's all help keep it that way.
“The world population is projected to reach 9.9 billion by 2050, an increase of more than 25% from the current 2020 population of 7.8 billion”
2020 Top 10 U.S Retail E-commerce Companies /
Today nearly 15% of all US retail sales are from e-commerce. Our forecast is that by 2030, nearly 30% of retail sales will be generated on-line. This transformation from a brick and mortar economy to an omni-channel model will vastly improve the customer experience. It will also require massive investment, innovation, training and retooling. Soon we will all live like the Jetsons. Change is good.
Here is e-Marketer’s listing of the 2020 top 10 U.S retail e-commerce companies ranked by sales.
Amazon: $309.58
Walmart: $46.20
eBay: $38.61
Apple: $27.51
The Home Depot: $16.71
Best Buy: $15.70
Target: $13.82
Wayfair: $11.66
Kroger: $11.28
Costco: $11.18
Figures are in Billions.
The PG 100: Walmart, Amazon, Kroger Dominate Top Retailers of Food and Consumables /
Repost from ProgressiveGrocer.comThe 2020 edition of Progressive Grocer’s annual ranking of leading retailers of food and consumables has changed in several notable ways. The list now reflects a more comprehensive view of the universe of retailers active in food and consumables categories and the geographic areas in which these retailers operate. This enlightened approach resulted in the creation of The PG 100: North America’s Top Retailers of Food and Consumables. It also marks a shift from the long-running Super 50 ranking, which focused on U.S.-only retailers that fit a more traditional definition of a grocer or supermarket.
Why the change? Why does anything in retail change? Because consumers have changed, and in some pretty dramatic ways. Where and how they shop for food, what they eat, how they live, their lifestyle priorities and drivers of purchase behaviors have evolved considerably from a decade or two ago. And more change will come as consumers adjust to life after COVID-19.
As consumers have changed, so has the nature of competition. The world of food and consumables is filled with innovation and nontraditional competitors that now sell lots of food and consumables, but don’t spring to mind when one hears the word "grocer" or "supermarket." In addition, many retailers, whether based in the United States, Canada or Mexico, operate throughout North America. The PG 100 accounts for these new competitive dynamics as they exist today and increasingly will affect the industry going forward.
Creating a list of this type is an inexact science, as there are large numbers of privately held companies that are quite secretive about details of their operations. Nevertheless, to create the PG 100, we relied on public and private sources, diligent research and proven forecasting methodologies employed by financial analysts to generate reliable sales estimates.
In total, the companies on this year’s PG 100 grew sales by 5.7% to $1.869 trillion from $1.768 trillion the prior year. That’s an impressive rate of growth for an industry often regarded as mature, which speaks to the level of innovation and the rapidly evolving and expansive competitive landscape that warranted creation of a new industry benchmark: The PG 100.
See the entire top 100 list at https://progressivegrocer.com