Retail

Charting Change: Final Analysis of Net Store Change from 2022 to 2023 /  by Duane Stiller

The final chart in the Charting Change series outlines changes in (GLA) for companies with 15+ locations in Florida across various retail sectors between 2022 and 2023.

The GLA absorption in 2022 was significant at 3.8 million square feet, but 2023 was drastically lower at 0.7 million square feet, a decrease of 81% primarily caused by Bed Bath & Beyond and Tuesday Morning exiting the market.

“... a decrease of 81% primarily caused by Bed Bath & Beyond and Tuesday Morning exiting the market. ”

Notable Highlights

  • Grocery / Warehouse Club / Liquor sector had the highest increase in GLA.

  • Home Furnishings / Appliance sector experienced the largest decrease in GLA.

  • Discount, Apparel, Fitness, and Home Improvement / Hardware saw significant increases in GLA.

  • The Pharmacy / Beauty Supply sector and the Office Supply sector both experienced declines in GLA across the observed years.

Florida Retail Property Sales Plunge 65% in 2023, Cap Rates Surge by 120 bps /  by Duane Stiller

In a stark turn of events, Florida's retail property market experienced a substantial downturn in 2023, witnessing a staggering 65% plummet in sales volume compared to the previous year. Major metropolitan areas saw transaction volumes dwindle to just $1.0 billion across 28 sales, marking a stark contrast to the record-breaking $3.0 billion in sales seen in 2022.

Notably, prices in 2023 tumbled by 12% compared to the previous year. The average capitalization rate paid in 2023 stood at 6.75%, signaling a significant 20% decrease in value for asset sales over $15 million. Amid these challenging circumstances, investors like Woolbright anticipate a turnaround in 2024, with hopes pinned on the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts to reignite the retail property market.

Florida Major Retail Developments 2023-2024 /  by Duane Stiller

The stark contrast between the 3 major retail developments slated for 2024 compared to the 300 apartment developments signals a seismic shift in the commercial real estate landscape. This notable discrepancy underscores a fundamental reevaluation of consumer behavior and market demands within the industry.

South Major Retail Developments 2023-2024 /  by Duane Stiller

South Markets include: Atlanta, Nashville, Charlotte, and Raleigh/Durham

The stark contrast between the mere three major retail developments anticipated in 2024 underscores a profound transformation within the realm of commercial real estate. This notable disproportion serves as a poignant indicator of shifting market dynamics and consumer preferences, reshaping the trajectory of the industry.

Florida's Banks Dominated by the Top 10 /  by Duane Stiller

There are about 50 companies with bank branches in Florida, but nearly two thirds of the 4000 branches in Florida are operated by the 10 biggest banks.

Even among the top 10, the top four: Wells Fargo, Truist, Band of America and Chase are all in "the 400 Club" and each of them operates over 400 branches. While Florida's population has record growth, the top 10 banks are still shrinking by 1.5%. In 2023, they closed 41 branches out of the nearly 3,000 they operate in the state. Amongst the top four, Wells Fargo and Truist both shrank by about 5% which is a substantial contraction. On the other hand, Bank of America and Chase basically remained unchanged. In 2023, Fifth-Third Bank grew by 10% and TD Bank grew by nearly 5%. As Florida's population continues its record growth, Woolbright predicts that over the next 5 years, Florida's banks will start to expand once again with much of that growth likely coming from the smaller banks.

Starbucks leads Florida Restaurant Expansion in 2023 /  by Duane Stiller

Today, 113 different companies operate 15 or more restaurant locations in Florida. Collectively, they operate just over 14,000 restaurants in the state. 

In 2023, there was a net increase of 172 new restaurant locations or a growth rate of 1.2%, which is in line with the pace of population growth. Starbucks was Florida's restaurant growth leader with 38 new stores. The top 8 companies accounted for nearly all of the net gain. On the other hand, there were three companies, Burger King, Boston Market and Subway, that combined closed just over 100 stores in 2023. To achieve the 1.2% growth, the restaurant companies opened 519 new locations and closed 347, so there is a constant battle with small gains in this highly competitive business.

Florida’s Big Box Growth Flat in 2023 /  by Duane Stiller

Last year, Florida’s retail occupancy held steady with 288 big box stores opening and 296 closing.

In recent years, there were 3 openings for every 2 closings, but in 2023, Bed Bath & and Tuesday Morning closed a combined 101 stores which cancelled out the expansions. In 2024, Woolbright forecasts a return to big box openings far exceeding closings.

Florida Retail Property Sales Plummet 65% in 2023 /  by Duane Stiller

In 2022, Florida's retail property sales saw a record $3.0B in sales, but in 2023 the transaction volume in the major metropolitan areas dropped to only $1.0B across 28 sales.

In addition, the price levels in 2023 fell by 12% as compared to 2022. The average capitalization rate paid in 2023 was 6.75% for asset sales over $15M. Woolbright, like many investors, expects that retail property values and volumes to improve significantly in 2024 as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates.