Growth

Florida Big Box Growth 2023 /  by Guest User

Over 70% of retail GLA is leased to "Big Boxes" is the shopping center ecosystem. In 2023, far more anchors opened than closed.

Dollar General and Publix led the 100 companies operating big box stores in Florida. Today's leaders are far different than past years where mega chains like Walmart, Target, Lowes, Home Depot and Costco dominated.

2023 Annual Openings: Florida Major Markets /  by Guest User

There are only 8 new retail projects that will open in 2023.

Please click on the links below to see the details for each new project.

2023 Annual Openings: Florida Major Markets

2022 Annual Openings: Florida Major Markets /  by Guest User

There are only 13 new retail projects that will open in 2022.

Please click on the links below to see the details for each new project.

2022 Annual Openings: Florida Major Markets

Welcome Benjamin Strine /  by Guest User

Welcome to the team Benjamin Strine! Ben earned his Master’s in Real Estate Development from Cornell University and received his Bachelors degree from the University of Pittsburgh. He will be responsible for all on-market acquisitions as well as dispositions and asset management.

Big Box is Booming, and it’s Mostly Going into Preexisting Space /  by Guest User

The big box market has consistently been resilient against the pressures of the pandemic. In 2021, big box retailers opened a net of 182 new locations in Florida, totaling over 4.0 million square feet of space.

With nearly no new retail shopping center construction, most big boxes aren’t expanding by going into new construction projects – instead, they are going into existing shopping centers or building freestanding box spaces.

 Grocery stores and discount stores account for 75% of the box store growth.  Those two areas have a good deal of overlapping sales and, as a result, they are fiercely competing to win the hearts of consumers. We are witnessing an epic battle where scale, logistics, site selection and technology are being deployed to win market share.  Stay tuned – we will have regular updates on the winners and the losers.

The New Normal (Spoiler Alert: It Isn’t All That New) /  by Guest User

In the roughly two decades between 1990-2008, Florida saw an average annual construction rate of 3%. Following the Great Recession, by 2010 that number had dipped to less than 1%.

New retail projects are very rare, but keep an eye on apartments – with Florida’s continued growing population, we will need to add 5M new housing units and apartments by 2040. Existing retail centers will go through a good deal of redevelopment and any new construction will almost inevitably contain a large apartment component. 

Retailers are now embracing new ways to grow their sales with deliveries and curbside pick-ups.  These growth-driving innovations are driving up sales without the need for additional retail space.  Retail as a whole is transforming into a hyper-efficient system.

Base Rents at an All-Time High /  by Guest User

Using Publix-Anchored centers as a control group, base rental rates across Florida’s major markets are now at a twenty-year high. Just prior to the Great Financial Crisis, base rents topped off at the $21-28 rate, depending on the market.

By 2017-2018, all four major markets surpassed their previous highs ‒ and the numbers have only increased since. Over the last seven years retail property rents have risen by 3-4% annually, significantly exceeding the overall rate of inflation or CPI. By 2023, we project base rental rates to range from $28-36 depending on the market.

We Are No Longer in Peak Retail, and That’s Okay. /  by Guest User

Since 1985, it was typical to see between 70-100 new retail projects per year in Florida; today, that number is down to 4-5 projects per year. The state hasn’t seen a new mall in the last two decades. And yet, Florida will continue to experience explosive population growth.

This might seem alarming, but it isn’t an apocalyptic indicator that retail is dying; rather, the data indicates that the nature of retail itself is changing. With the rise of curbside pickup, delivery services, and front-door stores seeing increased back-door sales, the average square footage of retail space per person in the state will contract over the next decade and retail development will nearly stop. In the 1980’s, Florida had approximately 17 sf retail space per person. By 2030, we will return to that level. This is just another system that is going through self-optimization.

Welcome Juan Rodriguez /  by Guest User

Welcome to the team Juan Rodriguez! Juan has been working in Real Estate Development for 5 years in the South Florida Market and is a recent Masters Graduate from the Cornell SC Johnson College of Business - Baker Program class of 2021. He will be working in Acquisitions, Dispositions, and Asset Management for the Woolbright Team.