Statistics

Big Box is Booming, and it’s Mostly Going into Preexisting Space /  by Guest User

The big box market has consistently been resilient against the pressures of the pandemic. In 2021, big box retailers opened a net of 182 new locations in Florida, totaling over 4.0 million square feet of space.

With nearly no new retail shopping center construction, most big boxes aren’t expanding by going into new construction projects – instead, they are going into existing shopping centers or building freestanding box spaces.

 Grocery stores and discount stores account for 75% of the box store growth.  Those two areas have a good deal of overlapping sales and, as a result, they are fiercely competing to win the hearts of consumers. We are witnessing an epic battle where scale, logistics, site selection and technology are being deployed to win market share.  Stay tuned – we will have regular updates on the winners and the losers.

Retail Apocalypse? Where? /  by Guest User

In 2021, national tenants in Florida ‒ defined as those tenants with 15 or more locations ‒ closed nearly 300 stores across the state. At first glance, this may seem like a sure sign of the retail apocalypse. But let’s look a little closer.

Big box space comprises 75% of the retail inventory in Florida and represents 80% of sales. Far from shrinking, in 2021 big box retailers added 182 locations across the state and added a net of 4.0M SF of new space. So clearly, neither the retail apocalypse or the pandemic are affecting the big box players. 

 Small shops, meanwhile, represent all of the retail contraction in Florida, closing a total of 480 stores statewide. But the majority of these closures were not from retailers or restaurants ‒ those national tenants closed only 38 and 31 stores, respectively, which represents only a minor post-Covid adjustment. Instead, the majority of the national retailer contraction was felt in the service industry and in the banking sector. While the pandemic may explain the challenges faced by the service industry, banks were primarily affected by two factors. First, SunTrust and BB&T merged into Truist, a move which directly caused 50% of the branch closings. Second, the continued rise in online banking has impacted the banking industry as a whole, prompting the entire sector to operate more efficiently.

The New Normal (Spoiler Alert: It Isn’t All That New) /  by Guest User

In the roughly two decades between 1990-2008, Florida saw an average annual construction rate of 3%. Following the Great Recession, by 2010 that number had dipped to less than 1%.

New retail projects are very rare, but keep an eye on apartments – with Florida’s continued growing population, we will need to add 5M new housing units and apartments by 2040. Existing retail centers will go through a good deal of redevelopment and any new construction will almost inevitably contain a large apartment component. 

Retailers are now embracing new ways to grow their sales with deliveries and curbside pick-ups.  These growth-driving innovations are driving up sales without the need for additional retail space.  Retail as a whole is transforming into a hyper-efficient system.

Base Rents at an All-Time High /  by Guest User

Using Publix-Anchored centers as a control group, base rental rates across Florida’s major markets are now at a twenty-year high. Just prior to the Great Financial Crisis, base rents topped off at the $21-28 rate, depending on the market.

By 2017-2018, all four major markets surpassed their previous highs ‒ and the numbers have only increased since. Over the last seven years retail property rents have risen by 3-4% annually, significantly exceeding the overall rate of inflation or CPI. By 2023, we project base rental rates to range from $28-36 depending on the market.

Vacancy Rates Nearing Twenty-Year Lows /  by Guest User

Across Florida’s four major markets, vacancy rates are nearing their lowest levels of the past two decades.

The Great Financial Crisis in 2008 saw a major spike in vacancy rates, the effects of which lasted well into 2014. However, retailers have been filling vacancies at a steady pace since then. As of 2021, vacancy rates in all four major markets dipped below 10% and are projected to be at or below 8% by 2023.  

The Volume of Large Transactions is at Near-Record Levels; Cap Rates Follow Suit /  by Guest User

Except for the colapse created by the Great Financial Crisis in 2009 and the Pandemic in 2020, the annual volume of large retail property sales transactions (those totaling $15M or more) has on the whole oscillated widely from one long-term trend period to the next.

However, in those years when a large volume of projects trade, they do so at significantly lower cap rates. In 2005, the average large transaction traded for a 7% cap; today, those projects are trading for a 5% cap. We project cap rates will continue this downward trajectory and dip below 5% in 2022, possibly signaling a period of an irrational exuberance.

We Are No Longer in Peak Retail, and That’s Okay. /  by Guest User

Since 1985, it was typical to see between 70-100 new retail projects per year in Florida; today, that number is down to 4-5 projects per year. The state hasn’t seen a new mall in the last two decades. And yet, Florida will continue to experience explosive population growth.

This might seem alarming, but it isn’t an apocalyptic indicator that retail is dying; rather, the data indicates that the nature of retail itself is changing. With the rise of curbside pickup, delivery services, and front-door stores seeing increased back-door sales, the average square footage of retail space per person in the state will contract over the next decade and retail development will nearly stop. In the 1980’s, Florida had approximately 17 sf retail space per person. By 2030, we will return to that level. This is just another system that is going through self-optimization.

South Box Openings & Closings: January 2022 /  by Guest User

South includes: AL, GA, NC, SC, TN, VA

Openings: 68 stores

Ace Hardware Corporation: 2
Aldi: 1
Ashley Furniture: 3
Barnes & Noble: 1
Crunch Fitness: 2
Dollar General: 28
Dollar Tree: 4
Family Dollar Stores: 8
Goodwill: 1
Habitat for Humanity: 1
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 6
Party City: 1
Pet Supplies Plus Inc.: 1
Piggly Wiggly: 1
Planet Fitness: 3
Publix: 4
Total Wine & More: 1

Closings: 30 stores

AMC: 3
Books A Million: 1
buybuy Baby: 1
Compare Foods: 1
Crunch Fitness: 1
Dick’s Sporting Goods: 1
Family Dollar Stores: 5
Five Below: 1
Gold’s Gym: 3
Goodwill: 1
Greenwise: 1
Habitat for Humanity: 1
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 1
Kirkland’s, Inc.: 1
Office Max: 1
Piggly Wiggly: 1
Publix: 1
Save-A-Lot: 2
Sears: 1
Total Wine & More: 1
True Value Company: 1

Texas Box Openings & Closings: January 2022 /  by Guest User

Openings: 39 stores

Ace Hardware Corporation: 1
Ashley Furniture: 1
Citi Trends: 1
Crunch Fitness: 1
Dollar General: 11
Dollar Tree: 3
Family Dollar Stores: 10
Floor and Decor: 1
Goodwill: 2
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 2
H-E-B: 1
LA Fitness: 1
Pet Supplies Plus Inc.: 1
Planet Fitness: 1
Walgreens: 1

Closings: 16 stores

AMC: 1
Bed Bath & Beyond: 1
Cost Plus World Market: 1
Dick’s Sporting Goods: 1
Dollar Tree: 1
DSW Shoe Warehouse: 2
Family Dollar Stores: 2
Goodwill: 1
H-E-B: 1
Kirkland’s, Inc.: 1
Office Depot: 3
Walgreens: 1

Florida Box Openings & Closings: January 2022 /  by Guest User

Openings: 20 stores

Badcock Furniture: 1
BJ’s: 1
Crunch Fitness: 1
Dollar General: 7
Dollar Tree: 3
Family Dollar Stores: 1
Floor and Decor: 1
Hobby Lobby: 1
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet: 1
Publix: 2
Sprouts Farmers Market:1

Closings: 18 stores

CVS: 1
Dollar General: 1
Dollar Tree: 2
Goodwill: 1
Kirkland’s, Inc.: 1
Office Depot: 6
Office Max: 2
Save-A-Lot: 1
Sears: 1
True Value Company: 2

South Box Openings & Closings: October 2021 /  by Guest User

South includes: AL, GA, NC, SC, TN, VA

Openings: 73 stores

Ace Hardware Corporation: 2
Aldi: 1
American Freight: 1
Big Lots: 3
Burlington Coat Factory: 5
Chuck E Cheese: 1
Citi Trends: 1
CMX Cinemas: 1
Dollar General: 26
Dollar Tree: 4
Family Dollar Stores: 3
Five Below: 1
Food Lion/Delhaze: 1
GFS Marketplace: 1
Goodwill: 2
Habitat for Humanity: 3
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 2
Home Depot: 1
Kohl’s: 2
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet: 1
Party City: 1
Planet Fitness: 3
Rooms To Go Kids: 1
Ross: 3
ULTA: 3

Closings: 15 stores

Ace Hardware Corporation: 1
Big Lots: 1
Burlington Coat Factory: 1
CMX Cinemas: 1
Dollar General: 1
Dollar Tree: 1
Family Dollar Stores: 1
Habitat for Humanity: 2
Home Depot: 1
Save-A-Lot: 4
Sears Appliance: 1

Texas Box Openings & Closings: October 2021 /  by Guest User

Openings: 30 stores

Ace Hardware Corporation: 1
Bealls Outlet: 1
Big Lots: 1
Burlington Coat Factory: 3
Citi Trends: 1
Costco: 1
dd’s Discounts: 2
Dollar General: 6
Dollar Tree: 1
Family Dollar Stores: 5
Five Below: 2
Goodwill: 1
H-E-B: 1
Home Depot: 1
Pet Supplies Plus Inc.: 1
Tuesday Morning: 1
ULTA: 1

Closings: 8 stores

Best Buy: 1
Burlington Coat Factory: 1
Crunch Fitness: 1
Dollar General: 1
Goodwill: 2
H-E-B: 1
Walgreens: 1

Florida Box Openings & Closings: October 2021 /  by Guest User

Openings: 28 stores

Ace Hardware Corporation: 1
American Freight: 1
At Home: 1
Barnes & Noble: 1
Big Lots: 1
Burlington Coat Factory: 2
CMX Cinemas: 1
Dollar General: 3
Dollar Tree: 1
Five Below: 1
Home Depot: 1
HomeGoods: 1
Pet Supplies Plus Inc.: 1
Planet Fitness: 2
Presidente Supermarket: 1
Publix: 1
Rooms To Go: 2
Rooms To Go Kids: 1
Ross: 1
TJ Maxx: 1
Total Wine & More: 1
Trader Joe’s: 1
Walgreens: 1

Closings: 11 stores

Fresco Y Mas : 1
Pet Supplies Plus Inc.: 1
Publix: 1
Rooms To Go: 2
Rooms To Go Kids: 2
Save-A-Lot: 2
TJ Maxx: 1
True Value Company: 1

South Box Openings & Closings: September 2021 /  by Guest User

South includes: AL, GA, NC, SC, TN, VA

Openings: 76 stores

Aldi: 2
Ashley Furniture: 1
Barnes & Noble: 1
Burlington Coat Factory: 6
Citi Trends: 1
CVS: 2
dd’s Discounts: 1
Dick’s Sporting Goods: 1
Dollar General: 24
Dollar Tree: 4
Family Dollar Stores: 8
Five Below: 4
Gold’s Gym: 1
Habitat for Humanity: 2
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 2
Home Depot: 1
HomeGoods: 1
Party City: 1
Piggly Wiggly: 1
Planet Fitness: 2
Save-A-Lot: 3
Sprouts Farmers Market: 1
Trader Joe’s: 2
ULTA: 1
Walgreens: 2
West Marine: 1

Closings: 32 stores

Ashley Furniture: 2
Bargain Hunt: 1
Big Lots: 1
Burlington Coat Factory: 1
Chuck E Cheese: 1
CVS: 2
Dollar General: 4
Dollar Tree: 2
Family Dollar Stores: 2
Gold’s Gym: 2
Habitat for Humanity: 1
Jo-Ann Fabric: 1
Office Max: 1
Planet Fitness: 1
Regal Cinemas: 1
Save-A-Lot: 2
Staples: 1
Walgreens: 5
West Marine: 1

Texas Box Openings & Closings: September 2021 /  by Guest User

Openings: 39 stores

Ace Hardware Corporation: 2
Burlington Coat Factory: 2
Costco: 1
Crunch Fitness: 1
CVS: 2
dd’s Discounts: 2
Dollar General: 6
Dollar Tree: 2
Esporta Fitness: 4
Family Dollar Stores: 6
Five Below: 2
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 1
Michaels Stores: 1
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet: 4
Pet Supplies Plus Inc.: 1
Ross: 1
Shoe Carnival: 1

Closings: 12 stores

CVS: 4
Esporta Fitness: 1
LA Fitness: 4
Regal Cinemas: 1
Shoe Carnival: 1
Havertys Furniture: 1

Florida Box Openings & Closings: September 2021 /  by Guest User

Openings: 37 stores

American Freight: 1
Burlington Coat Factory: 5
CVS: 1
Dollar General: 10
Dollar Tree: 1
Esporta Fitness: 5
Five Below: 1
Floor and Decor: 2
Habitat for Humanity: 1
Michaels Stores: 1
Publix: 4
Winn Dixie: 1

Closings: 19 stores

Ace Hardware Corporation: 1
CVS: 3
Dollar General: 1
Dollar Tree: 1
Family Dollar Stores: 1
Habitat for Humanity: 2
LA Fitness: 5
Powerhouse Gym: 1
Publix: 1
Sedano’s Supermarket: 1
Walgreens: 2

South Box Openings & Closings: August 2021 /  by Guest User

South includes: AL, GA, NC, SC, TN, VA

Openings: 67 stores

Ace Hardware Corporation: 2
Bargain Hunt: 1
Bealls Outlet: 1
Big Lots: 1
Burlington Coat Factory: 1
CVS: 1
Dollar General: 27
Dollar Tree: 7
Family Dollar Stores: 2
Five Below: 4
Floor and Decor: 1
Habitat for Humanity: 1
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 2
Hobby Lobby: 2
HomeGoods: 1
Jo-Ann Fabric: 1
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet: 2
Piggly Wiggly: 1
Planet Fitness: 2
Powerhouse Gym: 1
Publix: 1
Target: 1
Total Wine & More: 1
Trader Joe’s: 1
ULTA: 1
Walgreens: 1

Closings: 34 stores

Ace Hardware Corporation: 1
Bealls Outlet: 1
Bed Bath & Beyond: 3
Big Lots: 1
CVS: 2
Dollar General: 10
Dollar Tree: 2
Family Dollar Stores: 3
Fitness Connection: 1
Jo-Ann Fabric: 1
Piggly Wiggly: 1
Powerhouse Gym: 1
Save-A-Lot: 2
Total Wine & More: 1
True Value Company: 2
Walgreens: 2

Texas Box Openings & Closings: August 2021 /  by Guest User

Openings: 22 stores

Aldi: 1
Dollar General: 6
Dollar Tree: 3
Family Dollar Stores: 1
Five Below: 1
Floor and Decor: 1
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 2
Hobby Lobby: 1
HomeGoods: 1
Kirkland’s, Inc.: 1
Pet Supplies Plus Inc.: 1
Planet Fitness: 1
Shoe Carnival: 1
Tom Thumb: 1

Closings: 5 stores

American Freight: 1
Dollar General: 1
Kirkland’s, Inc.: 2
Albertsons: 1

Florida Box Openings & Closings: August 2021 /  by Guest User

Openings: 33 stores

ABC Fine Wine & Spirits: 1
Aldi: 3
Badcock Furniture: 1
Big Lots: 1
Cinemark USA: 1
Crunch Fitness: 1
Dollar General: 6
Five Below: 5
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 1
Pet Supplies Plus Inc.: 1
Planet Fitness: 1
Publix: 8
Ross: 3

Closings: 6 stores

Badcock Furniture: 1
Dollar General: 1
Family Dollar Stores: 2
Habitat for Humanity: 1
Save-A-Lot: 1