Statistics

South Box Openings & Closings: Februrary 2021 /  by Guest User

South includes: AL, GA, NC, SC, TN, VA

Openings: 55 stores

Ace Hardware Corporation: 2
Aldi: 1
American Freight: 3
Big Lots: 2
Citi Trends: 1
Dollar General: 17
Dollar Tree: 4
Family Dollar Stores: 2
Five Below: 4
Habitat for Humanity: 1
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 1
Hobby Lobby: 3
HomeGoods: 3
La-Z-Boy Incorporated: 1
Lidl: 1
Marshall’s: 2
Michaels Stores: 1
Piggly Wiggly: 2
Planet Fitness: 1
Rooms To Go: 1
Walgreens: 2

Closinsg: 32 stores

American Freight: 1
Badcock Furniture: 1
Bed Bath & Beyond: 6
Belk Department Store: 1
Big Lots: 2
Citi Trends: 1
Crunch Fitness: 1
Dick’s Sporting Goods: 1
Dollar General: 3
Family Dollar Stores: 2
Gabe’s Discount: 1
Goodwill: 1
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 1
Kirkland’s, Inc.: 1
La-Z-Boy Incorporated: 1
Michaels Stores: 2
Piggly Wiggly: 1
Staples: 1
True Value Company: 1
Walgreens: 2
Wal-Mart: 1

Texas Box Openings & Closings: Februrary 2021 /  by Guest User

Openings: 27 stores

Ace Hardware Corporation: 1
Aldi: 1
CVS: 1
Dick’s Sporting Goods: 1
Dollar General: 9
El Rancho Supermarket: 1
Family Dollar Stores: 1
Five Below: 2
Floor and Decor: 1
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 2
Michaels Stores: 2
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet: 2
Ross: 1
Tom Thumb: 1
Walgreens: 1

Closings: 6 stores

Dollar General: 2
Pet Supplies Plus Inc.: 1
Regal Cinemas: 1
Rooms To Go Kids: 1
Walgreens: 1

Florida Box Openings & Closings: February 2021 /  by Guest User

Openings: 28 stores

Aldi: 1
Burlington Coat Factory: 3
CVS: 1
Dick's Sporting Goods: 1
Dollar General: 9
Five Below: 4
Habitat for Humanity: 1
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 1
Michaels Stores: 2
Pet Supplies Plus Inc.: 1
Rooms To Go: 1
Rooms To Go Kids: 1
Ross: 1
TJ Maxx: 1

Closings: 11 stores

Bed Bath & Beyond: 3
Books A Million: 2
Dollar General: 1
Michaels Stores: 1
Planet Fitness: 1
Publix: 2
TJ Maxx: 2

South Box Openings & Closings: January 2021 /  by Guest User

South includes: AL, GA, NC, SC, TN, VA

Openings: 46 stores

Ace Hardware Corporation :2
Aldi: 1
AMC: 1
American Freight: 1
Ashley Furniture: 1
Badcock Furniture: 1
Citi Trends: 1
Crunch Fitness: 3
Dollar General: 13
Dollar Tree: 1
Family Dollar Stores: 7
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 3
Haverty's Furniture: 1
Lidl: 1
Pet Supplies Plus Inc.: 1
Piggly Wiggly: 3
Planet Fitness: 2
Publix: 1
True Value Company: 1
Walgreens: 1

Closings: 38 stores

Ace Hardware Corporation: 2
AMC: 1
Ashley Furniture: 2
Bed Bath & Beyond: 4
Burlington Coat Factory: 1
CVS: 3
Dick's Sporting Goods: 3
Dollar General: 1
Family Dollar Stores: 1
Gabe's Discount: 1
Habitat for Humanity: 2
Michaels Stores: 1
O2 Fitness Club: 1
Office Depot: 4
Office Max: 2
Party City: 1
Petco": 3
Save-A-Lot: 4
Walgreens: 1

Open-Air REIT Stocks /  by Mauricio Abela

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Major open-air retail REIT stocks had a major rally over the last 30 days and they have now recovered more than half of their losses. Clearly, investors see green shoots, but there is still a long way to go. As a group the REITs are trading at a huge discount to their NAV, net asset value. REITs own about 20% of major metro retail assets. Is the market telling us that the nimble entrepreneur shopping center owners will beat out the big corporate players? I'm rooting for the little guy!

Florida Sales Summary - 2005-2020 /  by Guest User

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Who turned out the lights? Retail investment sales crashed in 2020 nearly matching the catastrophic year of 2009. It hardly ever gets worse than that. Florida is a bellwether state in the US and we watch it like a hawk. Just multiply what's happening in Florida by 15 and that’s happening in the entire US. We’ve posted the details on all the retail property sales over $15M that occurred in the major metropolitan areas of Florida over the last three years on our blog.

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Our reports include: prices, cap rates, buyers, sellers, brokers, NOI and even the vacancy at the time of sale. The more everyone knows about what's really happening the better off our marketplace will be. Onward!

World Population /  by Guest User

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When I was born there were only 3.0B people. Today there are nearly 8.0B and somehow, in the last 60 years, we managed to thrive. The world population is projected to reach 9.9 billion by 2050, an increase of more than 25% from the current 2020 population of 7.8 billion. Total fertility rates are below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman in 91 countries and territories, mostly in Asia and Europe, as well as in the United States. What a great time to be alive. Notice that the world's population growth rate is dropping like a rock. America is still the leader. Let's all help keep it that way.

“The world population is projected to reach 9.9 billion by 2050, an increase of more than 25% from the current 2020 population of 7.8 billion”

Commercial Real Estate Rental Streams /  by Guest User

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Every once and awhile you see something that leaves you speechless. This chart is from a report just issued by Eastdil Secured and it hit me like a gut punch. I couldn't believe that I had missed something that was so obvious. All of the major classes of commercial real estate over the last 15 years have grown their rental streams by 3-4% annually. But there is one glaring exception, and that is retail properties which did not have any rental growth over the last 15 years. Now, during that period, retail sales grew by 3.75% per year, and yet, retail is still at the levels of 2005. That is shocking. What do you think about this? Please post a comment.

Top 10 US Retailers /  by Duane Stiller

In the last 30 years, the forces of creative destruction blasted away on the top 10 retail performers. Today, only 4 remain on the top 10 list and the other 6 are gone forever. Was that 30 year struggle an apocalypse? Not at all, it's just the innovative cycle that makes America the strongest nation in the world.

Every 15 years, half of the S&P 500 companies are dropped from the list. The same is true for the top 10 US retailers. Which 5 companies will get dropped from this list by 2035? I wish I knew, but whatever happens we will all be much better off.

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Texas Box Openings & Closings: Nov-Dec 2020 /  by Mauricio Abela

Openings: 46 stores

Ace Hardware Corporation: 1
Aldi: 1
Cinemark USA: 1
Citi Trends: 3
Crunch Fitness: 1
CVS: 3
Dollar General: 9
Dollar Tree: 3
Family Dollar Stores: 3
Five Below: 2
Floor and Decor: 1
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 5
Office Depot: 4
Old Navy: 1
Ollie's Bargain Outlet: 2
Pet Supplies Plus Inc.: 2
Petco: 1
Planet Fitness: 1
Ross: 2

Updated: 2/9/2021

Closings: 49 stores

24 Hour Fitness: 1
AMC: 1
Barnes & Noble: 1
Bealls Department Store (Stage): 5
Bed Bath & Beyond: 6
Cost Plus World Market: 3
Dollar General: 2
JC Penney: 1
Office Depot: 1
Office Max: 5
Powerhouse Gym: 1
Ross: 1
Staples: 1

The Retail Circle of Life /  by Mauricio Abela

Risk analysis: what if every financially weak big box tenant in the US went out of business? Big box retailers are 80% of the US retail platform. The way they go portends the state of the whole system. Most markets in the US are severed by about 100 big box brands – everything from Walmart to Walgreens.

Today, in each major US market, about 20 of the 100 big box companies are suffering financial stress. Many had problems well before COVID. Back in April of 2020, I realized that these weak tenants accounted for only about 6% of US retail space and, more surprisingly, they accounted for only 3% of the sales. If all the weak box retailers shut down, the remaining 80 retailers could easily absorb their sales.

About two thirds of these weak firms have already filed bankruptcy and most of them have reemerged with a fresh start and only a handful have been liquidated. A few others, like AMC Theaters have raised capital without bankruptcy. The system is very resilient. There is no retail apocalypse. It’s the circle of life – Simba defeats Scar.

Retail Bankruptcies /  by Duane Stiller

The 2020 retailer bankruptcies are not a bad sign. They allow the system to purge imbalances. The talk of “thousands of retailer bankruptcies portend an retail apocalypse” is nonsense in a system that just closed 50,000 stores with only 1-2% drop in occupancy. In 2020, the average open-air center lost just one small business. Of course, every closing is tragic at some level, but the system is strong and will soon recover.

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Only a small handful of national retailers are using bankruptcy. There are only about 100 companies occupying 15 or more boxes in Florida, they range from Walmart to Walgreens. All told, they have 80% of the GLA and 11,000 locations. About 10 of them need the help of bankruptcy to get a fresh start. About 5 are non-viable and need to liquidate, like Earth Fare, SteinMart, Pier 1 and Lucky’s Markets. In 2020, 24 Hour Fitness, Tuesday Morning, Guitar Center, JC Penny, Old Time Pottery, Men's Warehouse used chapter 11 to shed unprofitable stores, eliminate excess leverage and build liquidity. They are off again with a fresh start. It's the American way and it works. There is no retail apocalypse.

How can we restart the US growth machine? /  by Duane Stiller

http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/

http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/

Unfortunately, economic growth is not about to set any long-term records. For 50 years, from 1966 through 2007, the US economy grew at an average annualized rate of about 3.1%—a great and dynamic expansion which saw the economy almost quintuple in size. Then came the Great Recession of 2008-09. Not only did the economy fail to recover to that long-term 3.1% trend in subsequent years—for the first time ever, following a recession—it went on to post only slightly more than 2.1% annual growth in the decade from 2009 through early 2019. It was the weakest economic expansion on record, and it looks set to continue for the foreseeable future.

Scott Grannis challenges us to think about the big problems - how can we restart the US growth machine?

Florida Box Openings & Closings: Nov-Dec 2020 /  by Duane Stiller

Openings: 49 stores

Ace Hardware: 5
Aldi: 5
Crown Wine & Spirits: 1
Crunch Fitness: 1
CVS: 1
Dollar General: 8
Dollar Tree: 4
Family Dollar Stores: 1
Floor and Decor: 1
Esporta Fitness: 3
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 1
Harris Teeter: 1
Office Depot: 2
Old Navy: 1
Pet Supplies Plus: 1
Planet Fitness: 4
Publix: 6
Sprouts Farmers Market: 2
True Value: 1

Updated: 2/9/2021

Closings: 32 stores

ABC Fine Wine & Spirits: 1
Bed Bath & Beyond: 4
Family Dolla Stores: 1
Habitat for Humanity: 1
JC Penny: 8
La Fitness: 4
Office Depot: 1
Office Max: 3
Old Time Pottery: 1
Publix: 4
Save-A-Lot: 4

Oh my god, all my weight gain is in my right arm – The E-commerce Story /  by Duane Stiller

For the next 10 years the US does not need any new retail space. Retail sales in the US have grown steadily by 3.75% annually. Over 10 years, at that rate, retail sales grow by 40%. Half of that gain is due to inflation or just raising prices. The other half is volume growth and that’s what really matters. 

Over the last 5 years, a strange thing happened. All the retail volume gains occurred in the e-commerce space. It’s like a person who is gaining weight each year by 2%, but all their weight gain is in their right arm. It’s just weird to watch all the volume gains occurring in e-commerce, but that’s the reality.

For example, 2019 e-commerce was 15% of retail sales and it grew by about 15%. In other words, it added 2.25% which was all the volume growth. E-commerce’s growth rate is slowing, but it’s still accounting for all the volume growth. In a few years, e-commerce will be 20% of retail sales and its growth will have slowed to about 12%. Do the math it’s still 2.4% or all the volume growth.

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During the last few years, almost all retailers’ volume gains occurred in deliveries, curbside pick up and in shipping. In other words, all the volume growth came from the “back door” and the volume out the “front door” was unchanged. For the foreseeable future, there will be no additional dinners sold inside your favorite restaurant and no more shoppers at your local grocery store even if your town’s population is growing. Those stores sales will grow, but it will all happen out the “back door”.

It’s no surprise that Walmart stopped adding stores in many key markets recently and instead made massive investments in their “back door” e-commerce platform. Other retailers followed: Target spend $550M to buy Shipt, McDonalds spent $300M to buy a geo-fencing platform. Still, because of high delivery costs, all the profits are coming from the front door where the profit margins average 8%. Warehouse, labor and delivery cost and rising rapidly and it is very difficult to make any profit from e-commerce sales.  And so, it’s no surprise that the King of the Back Door, Amazon, is embarking on a massive store expansion with its Amazon Fresh stores. The profits are from the in-store sales, but all the growth is happening out the “back door”.

By 2030, it will all be over. Most retail businesses will get 25-30% of their sales from e-commerce. They will all have cool apps, frictionless check outs, one-hour delivery and so on. Ecommerce growth and brick and mortar growth will equalize and once again, we will need more retail space to accommodate the growth. Until then we don’t need anymore retail space in the US, we just need to repurpose what we already have.