Every once and awhile you see something that leaves you speechless. This chart is from a report just issued by Eastdil Secured and it hit me like a gut punch. I couldn't believe that I had missed something that was so obvious. All of the major classes of commercial real estate over the last 15 years have grown their rental streams by 3-4% annually. But there is one glaring exception, and that is retail properties which did not have any rental growth over the last 15 years. Now, during that period, retail sales grew by 3.75% per year, and yet, retail is still at the levels of 2005. That is shocking. What do you think about this? Please post a comment.
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Retail Bankruptcies /
The 2020 retailer bankruptcies are not a bad sign. They allow the system to purge imbalances. The talk of “thousands of retailer bankruptcies portend an retail apocalypse” is nonsense in a system that just closed 50,000 stores with only 1-2% drop in occupancy. In 2020, the average open-air center lost just one small business. Of course, every closing is tragic at some level, but the system is strong and will soon recover.
Only a small handful of national retailers are using bankruptcy. There are only about 100 companies occupying 15 or more boxes in Florida, they range from Walmart to Walgreens. All told, they have 80% of the GLA and 11,000 locations. About 10 of them need the help of bankruptcy to get a fresh start. About 5 are non-viable and need to liquidate, like Earth Fare, SteinMart, Pier 1 and Lucky’s Markets. In 2020, 24 Hour Fitness, Tuesday Morning, Guitar Center, JC Penny, Old Time Pottery, Men's Warehouse used chapter 11 to shed unprofitable stores, eliminate excess leverage and build liquidity. They are off again with a fresh start. It's the American way and it works. There is no retail apocalypse.