South Box Openings & Closings: February 2024

South includes: AL, GA, NC, SC, TN, VA

Openings: 53 stores

Ace Hardware: 1
Burlington: 2
Compare Foods: 1
Dollar General: 24
Dollar Tree: 7
Electronic Express: 1
Family Dollar: 7
Five Below: 2
Habitat for Humanity: 1
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 1
HomeGoods: 1
La-Z-Boy: 1
Pet Supplies Plus: 1
PETsMART: 1
Planet Fitness: 1
Walgreens: 1

Openings: 35 stores

Bealls: 1
Big Lots: 4
Burlington: 1
CVS: 1
Dollar General: 6
Electronic Express: 1
Family Dollar: 4
Gabe’s Discount: 1
Habitat for Humanity: 3
Jo-Ann Fabric: 1
Kirkland’s: 1
Lidl: 1
Old Time Pottery: 1
Party City: 1
Petco: 2
Staples: 1
Total Wine & More: 1
True Value Hardware: 1
Walgreens: 3

Florida Retail Property Sales Plunge 65% in 2023, Cap Rates Surge by 120 bps

In a stark turn of events, Florida's retail property market experienced a substantial downturn in 2023, witnessing a staggering 65% plummet in sales volume compared to the previous year. Major metropolitan areas saw transaction volumes dwindle to just $1.0 billion across 28 sales, marking a stark contrast to the record-breaking $3.0 billion in sales seen in 2022.

Notably, prices in 2023 tumbled by 12% compared to the previous year. The average capitalization rate paid in 2023 stood at 6.75%, signaling a significant 20% decrease in value for asset sales over $15 million. Amid these challenging circumstances, investors like Woolbright anticipate a turnaround in 2024, with hopes pinned on the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts to reignite the retail property market.

Florida Major Retail Developments 2023-2024

The stark contrast between the 3 major retail developments slated for 2024 compared to the 300 apartment developments signals a seismic shift in the commercial real estate landscape. This notable discrepancy underscores a fundamental reevaluation of consumer behavior and market demands within the industry.

South Major Retail Developments 2023-2024

South Markets include: Atlanta, Nashville, Charlotte, and Raleigh/Durham

The stark contrast between the mere three major retail developments anticipated in 2024 underscores a profound transformation within the realm of commercial real estate. This notable disproportion serves as a poignant indicator of shifting market dynamics and consumer preferences, reshaping the trajectory of the industry.

Florida's Banks Dominated by the Top 10

There are about 50 companies with bank branches in Florida, but nearly two thirds of the 4000 branches in Florida are operated by the 10 biggest banks.

Even among the top 10, the top four: Wells Fargo, Truist, Band of America and Chase are all in "the 400 Club" and each of them operates over 400 branches. While Florida's population has record growth, the top 10 banks are still shrinking by 1.5%. In 2023, they closed 41 branches out of the nearly 3,000 they operate in the state. Amongst the top four, Wells Fargo and Truist both shrank by about 5% which is a substantial contraction. On the other hand, Bank of America and Chase basically remained unchanged. In 2023, Fifth-Third Bank grew by 10% and TD Bank grew by nearly 5%. As Florida's population continues its record growth, Woolbright predicts that over the next 5 years, Florida's banks will start to expand once again with much of that growth likely coming from the smaller banks.

Starbucks leads Florida Restaurant Expansion in 2023

Today, 113 different companies operate 15 or more restaurant locations in Florida. Collectively, they operate just over 14,000 restaurants in the state. 

In 2023, there was a net increase of 172 new restaurant locations or a growth rate of 1.2%, which is in line with the pace of population growth. Starbucks was Florida's restaurant growth leader with 38 new stores. The top 8 companies accounted for nearly all of the net gain. On the other hand, there were three companies, Burger King, Boston Market and Subway, that combined closed just over 100 stores in 2023. To achieve the 1.2% growth, the restaurant companies opened 519 new locations and closed 347, so there is a constant battle with small gains in this highly competitive business.

2023 Big Box growth was lead by Grocery, Discount & Home Improvement

Yet, all that growth was offset by declines in Pharmacy & Home Furnishings.

Publix adds nearly 900,000 SF in 2023

Publix dominating the Big Box expansion in Florida.

Florida’s Big Box Growth Flat in 2023

Last year, Florida’s retail occupancy held steady with 288 big box stores opening and 296 closing.

In recent years, there were 3 openings for every 2 closings, but in 2023, Bed Bath & and Tuesday Morning closed a combined 101 stores which cancelled out the expansions. In 2024, Woolbright forecasts a return to big box openings far exceeding closings.

Florida Retail Property Sales Plummet 65% in 2023

In 2022, Florida's retail property sales saw a record $3.0B in sales, but in 2023 the transaction volume in the major metropolitan areas dropped to only $1.0B across 28 sales.

In addition, the price levels in 2023 fell by 12% as compared to 2022. The average capitalization rate paid in 2023 was 6.75% for asset sales over $15M. Woolbright, like many investors, expects that retail property values and volumes to improve significantly in 2024 as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates.

Florida Big Box Growth 2023

Over 70% of retail GLA is leased to "Big Boxes" is the shopping center ecosystem. In 2023, far more anchors opened than closed.

Dollar General and Publix led the 100 companies operating big box stores in Florida. Today's leaders are far different than past years where mega chains like Walmart, Target, Lowes, Home Depot and Costco dominated.

Florida Box Openings & Closings: November 2023

Openings: 32 stores

ABC Fine Wine & Spirits: 1
Academy Sports: 2
Aldi: 2
Barnes & Noble: 1
Bealls: 3
Burlington Coat Factory: 4
Costco: 1
Dollar General: 1
Dollar Tree: 4
Five Below: 4
Marshall’s: 2
Pet Supermarket: 1
Publix: 2
TJ Maxx: 2
Total Wine & More: 1
ULTA: 1

Closings: 16 stores

Bealls: 1
Burlington Coat Factory: 2
CVS: 4
Family Dollar Stores: 2
Pet Supplies Plus Inc.: 2
PETsMART: 1
Save-A-Lot: 2
TJ Maxx: 1
Walgreens: 1

Texas Box Openings & Closings: November 2023

Openings: 58 stores

Academy Sports:
Ace Hardware Corporation: 2
American Freight: 2
Barnes & Noble: 2
Burlington Coat Factory: 6
Dollar General: 10
Dollar Tree: 7
Family Dollar Stores: 4
Five Below: 2
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 1
HomeGoods: 1
Kohl’s: 2
Life Time Fitness: 1
Michaels Stores: 2
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet: 2
Pet Supplies Plus Inc.: 1
Petco: 3
Powerhouse Gym: 1
Specs Wines, Spirits & Finer Foods: 2
Tractor Supply: 3
Walgreens: 2

Closings: 19 stores

Ace Hardware Corporation: 1
Cinemark USA: 1
CVS: 7
Dick’s Sporting Goods: 1
Dollar General: 2
Equinox Fitness: 1
Family Dollar Stores: 1
Petco: 2
Specs Wines, Spirits & Finer Foods: 1
Walgreens: 2

South Box Openings & Closings: November 2023

South includes: AL, GA, NC, SC, TN, VA

Openings: 80 stores

Aldi: 4
Barnes & Noble: 1
Bealls: 1
Burlington Coat Factory: 5
Citi Trends: 1
Costco: 1
Crunch Fitness: 1
Dollar General: 26
Dollar Tree: 11
Family Dollar Stores: 8
Five Below: 7
Floor and Decor: 1
Habitat for Humanity: 2
HomeGoods: 1
Michaels Stores: 1
Pet Supplies Plus Inc.: 1
Planet Fitness: 3
Publix: 3
Tractor Supply: 1
ULTA: 1

Openings: 34 stores

AMC: 1
Badcock Furniture: 2
Bargain Hunt: 1
Burlington Coat Factory: 1
Citi Trends: 2
CVS: 2
Dollar General: 5
Dollar Tree: 1
Family Dollar Stores: 6
Gold’s Gym: 1
Habitat for Humanity: 3
Office Max: 1
Old Time Pottery: 1
Save-A-Lot: 1
Staples: 1
ULTA: 1
Walgreens: 4

Florida Box Openings & Closings: October 2023

Openings: 21 stores

Ace Hardware Corporation: 1
Aldi: 1
Bealls Florida: 1
Burlington Coat Factory: 2
Dollar General: 4
Family Dollar Stores: 1
Five Below: 1
HomeGoods: 2
Michaels Stores: 1
Planet Fitness: 1
Ross: 2
Target: 1
Tractor Supply: 2
Trader Joe’s: 1

Closings: 9 stores

Aldi: 1
Best Buy: 1
Citi Trends: 1
CVS: 1
Office Depot: 1
Save-A-Lot: 1
Tractor Supply: 1
True Value Company: 2

Texas Box Openings & Closings: October 2023

Openings: 47 stores

Bealls: 1
Burlington Coat Factory: 3
Crunch Fitness: 2
CVS: 2
Dick’s Sporting Goods: 1
Dollar General: 1
Dollar Tree: 4
El Rancho Supermarket : 3
EOS Fitness: 1
Equinox Fitness: 1
Family Dollar Stores: 6
Five Below: 1
Floor and Decor: 1
Guitar Center: 1
H-E-B: 2
Home Depot: 1
Lowe’s: 1
Nordstrom Rack: 2
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet: 1
Pet Supplies Plus Inc.: 1
PETsMART: 2
Planet Fitness: 1
Ross: 4
Sprouts Farmers Market: 1
Target: 2

Closings: 13 stores

American Freight: 1
Dick's Sporting Goods: 2
Dollar General: 1
Petco: 8
Whole Foods: 1

South Box Openings & Closings: October 2023

South includes: AL, GA, NC, SC, TN, VA

Openings: 81 stores

Ashley Furniture: 1
BrandsMart USA: 1
Burlington Coat Factory: 4
CMX Cinemas: 1
Crunch Fitness: 2
Dollar General: 18
Dollar Tree: 8
Family Dollar Stores: 10
Five Below: 3
Floor and Decor: 1
Gabe’s Discount: 1
Gold’s Gym: 1
Golf Galaxy: 1
Habitat for Humanity: 1
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 2
Havertys Furniture: 1
Hobby Lobby: 1
HomeGoods: 1
Lidl: 1
Lowe’s: 1
Marshall’s: 1
Michaels Stores: 1
Old Navy: 1
Pet Supplies Plus Inc.: 2
PETsMART: 1
Piggly Wiggly: 1
Planet Fitness: 3
Publix: 1
Ross: 4
TJ Maxx: 1
Tractor Supply: 1
True Value Company: 1
Walgreens: 2
Whole Foods: 1

Openings: 47 stores

Aldi: 1
AMC: 2
American Freight: 1
Ashley Furniture: 1
Books A Million: 1
Burlington Coat Factory: 1
CVS: 8
Dollar General: 7
Dollar Tree: 1
Family Dollar Stores: 5
Guitar Center: 1
Habitat for Humanity: 1
Lowe’s: 1
Marshall’s: 1
Office Depot: 1
Petco: 4
Piggly Wiggly: 1
Save-A-Lot: 2
TJ Maxx: 1
True Value Company: 2
Walgreens: 3
Whole Foods: 1

Florida Box Openings & Closings: September 2023

Openings: 28 stores

ABC Fine Wine & Spirits: 2
Ace Hardware Corporation: 1
At Home: 1
Bravo Supermarket : 1
Burlington Coat Factory: 1
Conn’s Home Plus: 1
Crunch Fitness: 1
Dollar General: 3
Five Below: 4
Fresh Market: 1
Golf Galaxy: 1
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 1
Home Depot: 1
LA Fitness: 1
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet: 1
Pet Supermarket: 1
Pet Supplies Plus Inc.: 1
Presidente Supermarket: 1
Sprouts Farmers Market: 1
Total Wine & More: 1
Tractor Supply: 1
Winn Dixie : 1

Closings: 25 stores

ABC Fine Wine & Spirits: 1
Ace Hardware Corporation: 1
Bealls: 5
CVS: 9
Esporta Fitness: 1
Family Dollar Stores: 3
Office Depot: 2
Publix: 1
Save-A-Lot: 2

Texas Box Openings & Closings: September 2023

Openings: 37 stores

Academy Sports: 2
At Home: 1
Bealls: 1
Big Lots: 1
Burlington Coat Factory: 2
Crunch Fitness: 2
dd’s Discounts: 2
Dollar General: 10
Dollar Tree: 4
Family Dollar Stores: 2
Five Below: 2
HomeGoods: 1
Nordstrom Rack: 1
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet: 2
Pet Supplies Plus Inc.: 1
Specs Wines, Spirits & Finer Foods: 1
Tractor Supply: 1
Walgreens: 1

Closings: 14 stores

CVS: 9
Family Dollar Stores: 1
HomeGoods: 1
Old Navy: 1
True Value Company: 2

South Box Openings & Closings: September 2023

South includes: AL, GA, NC, SC, TN, VA

Openings: 74 stores

Ace Hardware Corporation: 3
Aldi: 2
Ashley Furniture: 3
Bealls: 1
Big Lots: 1
Burlington Coat Factory: 3
Conn’s Home Plus: 1
Crunch Fitness: 2
CVS: 4
dd’s Discounts: 1
Dollar General: 25
Dollar Tree: 6
Family Dollar Stores: 4
Five Below: 4
Golf Galaxy: 1
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 1
Hobby Lobby: 1
Home Centric: 1
Kroger : 1
Lowe’s: 2
Old Navy: 1
TJ Maxx: 1
Tractor Supply: 2
Walgreens: 3

Openings: 28 stores

Ashley Furniture: 1
Burlington Coat Factory: 1
CMX Cinemas: 1
CVS: 7
Dollar General: 4
Dollar Tree: 1
Family Dollar Stores: 2
Gold’s Gym: 1
PETsMART: 3
True Value Company: 3
Walgreens: 3
Wal-Mart: 1