“I’ll Pay You $7 Million for a Profoundly Mediocre Performance,” said no investor ever. /  by Guest User

It’s pretty good to be CEO of a top-20 strip center owner. In 2020, the average CEO’s compensation hovered around $6.4 million. And, it turns out, they didn’t have to move all that many mountains to earn that kind of paycheck.

From 2014 to 2021, the market cap of these top 20 companies shrank by $4.4 billion. Those that did manage to grow in size only did so through the acquisition of competitor companies.

Take Kimco, for example. In 2021, they bought WRI’s 29 million square foot portfolio. And yet, between 2014 and 2021 Kimco’s GLA only grew by 10 million square feet. This means that were it not for the WRI acquisition, Kimco’s total GLA would have actually contracted by 19 million square feet in those six years. Similarly, Kimco’s market cap appears to have increased by $3.1 billion in that same six-year period. And yet, when we consider that they acquired Weingarten with a $4.8 billion market cap, were it not for that purchase, Kimco would have lost $1.7 billion in value. And yet, Kimco’s stockholders paid 7.6% in general and administrative fee and awarded Kimco’s CEO $7.7 million in compensation for the privilege.

Talk about a herd of big, inefficient elephants in the room.

South Box Openings & Closings: February 2022 /  by Guest User

South includes: AL, GA, NC, SC, TN, VA

Openings: 64 stores

Ace Hardware Corporation: 2
AMC: 1
At Home: 1
Badcock Furniture: 1
Big Lots: 1
Burlington Coat Factory: 1
buybuy Baby: 1
Citi Trends: 1
Crunch Fitness: 1
Dollar General: 17
Dollar Tree: 14
Electronic Express: 1
Family Dollar Stores: 8
Five Below: 1
Goodwill: 1
Harris Teeter: 1
Hobby Lobby: 2
HomeGoods: 1
Lowes Foods: 1
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet: 1
Pet Supplies Plus Inc.: 1
Planet Fitness: 1
Publix: 2
Sears Appliance: 1
ULTA: 1

Closings: 48 stores

Ace Hardware Corporation: 1
AMC: 2
Badcock Furniture: 1
Bealls Outlet: 1
Bed Bath & Beyond: 3
Books A Million: 1
buybuy Baby: 1
CVS: 1
Dollar General: 7
Dollar Tree: 1
DSW Shoe Warehouse: 1
Electronic Express: 1
Family Dollar Stores: 7
Gold’s Gym: 1
Goodwill: 2
Kirkland’s, Inc.: 3
Lidl: 1
Piggly Wiggly: 1
Publix: 1
Regal Cinemas: 1
Save-A-Lot: 1
Sears Appliance: 3
Shoe Carnival: 1
Walgreens: 5

Texas Box Openings & Closings: February 2022 /  by Guest User

Openings: 35 stores

Ace Hardware Corporation: 2
Ashley Furniture: 1
At Home: 1
dd’s Discounts: 4
Dollar General: 8
Dollar Tree: 3
Family Dollar Stores: 3
Five Below: 2
Floor and Decor: 1
Gold’s Gym: 1
Hobby Lobby: 2
HomeGoods: 2
Planet Fitness: 1
Sprouts Farmers Market: 1
ULTA: 1

Closings: 18 stores

CVS: 2
Dollar General: 3
Dollar Tree: 3
Family Dollar Stores: 4
Golf Galaxy: 1
Hobby Lobby: 1
Kirkland’s, Inc.: 1
True Value Company: 1
Tuesday Morning: 1
ULTA: 1

Welcome Benjamin Strine /  by Guest User

Welcome to the team Benjamin Strine! Ben earned his Master’s in Real Estate Development from Cornell University and received his Bachelors degree from the University of Pittsburgh. He will be responsible for all on-market acquisitions as well as dispositions and asset management.

Big Box is Booming, and it’s Mostly Going into Preexisting Space /  by Guest User

The big box market has consistently been resilient against the pressures of the pandemic. In 2021, big box retailers opened a net of 182 new locations in Florida, totaling over 4.0 million square feet of space.

With nearly no new retail shopping center construction, most big boxes aren’t expanding by going into new construction projects – instead, they are going into existing shopping centers or building freestanding box spaces.

 Grocery stores and discount stores account for 75% of the box store growth.  Those two areas have a good deal of overlapping sales and, as a result, they are fiercely competing to win the hearts of consumers. We are witnessing an epic battle where scale, logistics, site selection and technology are being deployed to win market share.  Stay tuned – we will have regular updates on the winners and the losers.

Retail Apocalypse? Where? /  by Guest User

In 2021, national tenants in Florida ‒ defined as those tenants with 15 or more locations ‒ closed nearly 300 stores across the state. At first glance, this may seem like a sure sign of the retail apocalypse. But let’s look a little closer.

Big box space comprises 75% of the retail inventory in Florida and represents 80% of sales. Far from shrinking, in 2021 big box retailers added 182 locations across the state and added a net of 4.0M SF of new space. So clearly, neither the retail apocalypse or the pandemic are affecting the big box players. 

 Small shops, meanwhile, represent all of the retail contraction in Florida, closing a total of 480 stores statewide. But the majority of these closures were not from retailers or restaurants ‒ those national tenants closed only 38 and 31 stores, respectively, which represents only a minor post-Covid adjustment. Instead, the majority of the national retailer contraction was felt in the service industry and in the banking sector. While the pandemic may explain the challenges faced by the service industry, banks were primarily affected by two factors. First, SunTrust and BB&T merged into Truist, a move which directly caused 50% of the branch closings. Second, the continued rise in online banking has impacted the banking industry as a whole, prompting the entire sector to operate more efficiently.

The New Normal (Spoiler Alert: It Isn’t All That New) /  by Guest User

In the roughly two decades between 1990-2008, Florida saw an average annual construction rate of 3%. Following the Great Recession, by 2010 that number had dipped to less than 1%.

New retail projects are very rare, but keep an eye on apartments – with Florida’s continued growing population, we will need to add 5M new housing units and apartments by 2040. Existing retail centers will go through a good deal of redevelopment and any new construction will almost inevitably contain a large apartment component. 

Retailers are now embracing new ways to grow their sales with deliveries and curbside pick-ups.  These growth-driving innovations are driving up sales without the need for additional retail space.  Retail as a whole is transforming into a hyper-efficient system.

Base Rents at an All-Time High /  by Guest User

Using Publix-Anchored centers as a control group, base rental rates across Florida’s major markets are now at a twenty-year high. Just prior to the Great Financial Crisis, base rents topped off at the $21-28 rate, depending on the market.

By 2017-2018, all four major markets surpassed their previous highs ‒ and the numbers have only increased since. Over the last seven years retail property rents have risen by 3-4% annually, significantly exceeding the overall rate of inflation or CPI. By 2023, we project base rental rates to range from $28-36 depending on the market.

Vacancy Rates Nearing Twenty-Year Lows /  by Guest User

Across Florida’s four major markets, vacancy rates are nearing their lowest levels of the past two decades.

The Great Financial Crisis in 2008 saw a major spike in vacancy rates, the effects of which lasted well into 2014. However, retailers have been filling vacancies at a steady pace since then. As of 2021, vacancy rates in all four major markets dipped below 10% and are projected to be at or below 8% by 2023.  

The Volume of Large Transactions is at Near-Record Levels; Cap Rates Follow Suit /  by Guest User

Except for the colapse created by the Great Financial Crisis in 2009 and the Pandemic in 2020, the annual volume of large retail property sales transactions (those totaling $15M or more) has on the whole oscillated widely from one long-term trend period to the next.

However, in those years when a large volume of projects trade, they do so at significantly lower cap rates. In 2005, the average large transaction traded for a 7% cap; today, those projects are trading for a 5% cap. We project cap rates will continue this downward trajectory and dip below 5% in 2022, possibly signaling a period of an irrational exuberance.

We Are No Longer in Peak Retail, and That’s Okay. /  by Guest User

Since 1985, it was typical to see between 70-100 new retail projects per year in Florida; today, that number is down to 4-5 projects per year. The state hasn’t seen a new mall in the last two decades. And yet, Florida will continue to experience explosive population growth.

This might seem alarming, but it isn’t an apocalyptic indicator that retail is dying; rather, the data indicates that the nature of retail itself is changing. With the rise of curbside pickup, delivery services, and front-door stores seeing increased back-door sales, the average square footage of retail space per person in the state will contract over the next decade and retail development will nearly stop. In the 1980’s, Florida had approximately 17 sf retail space per person. By 2030, we will return to that level. This is just another system that is going through self-optimization.

South Box Openings & Closings: January 2022 /  by Guest User

South includes: AL, GA, NC, SC, TN, VA

Openings: 68 stores

Ace Hardware Corporation: 2
Aldi: 1
Ashley Furniture: 3
Barnes & Noble: 1
Crunch Fitness: 2
Dollar General: 28
Dollar Tree: 4
Family Dollar Stores: 8
Goodwill: 1
Habitat for Humanity: 1
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 6
Party City: 1
Pet Supplies Plus Inc.: 1
Piggly Wiggly: 1
Planet Fitness: 3
Publix: 4
Total Wine & More: 1

Closings: 30 stores

AMC: 3
Books A Million: 1
buybuy Baby: 1
Compare Foods: 1
Crunch Fitness: 1
Dick’s Sporting Goods: 1
Family Dollar Stores: 5
Five Below: 1
Gold’s Gym: 3
Goodwill: 1
Greenwise: 1
Habitat for Humanity: 1
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 1
Kirkland’s, Inc.: 1
Office Max: 1
Piggly Wiggly: 1
Publix: 1
Save-A-Lot: 2
Sears: 1
Total Wine & More: 1
True Value Company: 1

Texas Box Openings & Closings: January 2022 /  by Guest User

Openings: 39 stores

Ace Hardware Corporation: 1
Ashley Furniture: 1
Citi Trends: 1
Crunch Fitness: 1
Dollar General: 11
Dollar Tree: 3
Family Dollar Stores: 10
Floor and Decor: 1
Goodwill: 2
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 2
H-E-B: 1
LA Fitness: 1
Pet Supplies Plus Inc.: 1
Planet Fitness: 1
Walgreens: 1

Closings: 16 stores

AMC: 1
Bed Bath & Beyond: 1
Cost Plus World Market: 1
Dick’s Sporting Goods: 1
Dollar Tree: 1
DSW Shoe Warehouse: 2
Family Dollar Stores: 2
Goodwill: 1
H-E-B: 1
Kirkland’s, Inc.: 1
Office Depot: 3
Walgreens: 1

Florida Box Openings & Closings: January 2022 /  by Guest User

Openings: 20 stores

Badcock Furniture: 1
BJ’s: 1
Crunch Fitness: 1
Dollar General: 7
Dollar Tree: 3
Family Dollar Stores: 1
Floor and Decor: 1
Hobby Lobby: 1
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet: 1
Publix: 2
Sprouts Farmers Market:1

Closings: 18 stores

CVS: 1
Dollar General: 1
Dollar Tree: 2
Goodwill: 1
Kirkland’s, Inc.: 1
Office Depot: 6
Office Max: 2
Save-A-Lot: 1
Sears: 1
True Value Company: 2

Welcome Juan Rodriguez /  by Guest User

Welcome to the team Juan Rodriguez! Juan has been working in Real Estate Development for 5 years in the South Florida Market and is a recent Masters Graduate from the Cornell SC Johnson College of Business - Baker Program class of 2021. He will be working in Acquisitions, Dispositions, and Asset Management for the Woolbright Team.