Covid-19 Infections /  by Guest User

Over the past year in the US, COVID has been a national tragedy with about 600,000 deaths. Nearly 80% of those dying were over 65. Today, there are about 100M unvaccinated under 65 and another 10M unvaccinated over 65. In the next year, another 100,000 - 150,000 American will die from COVID (nearly all off those deaths will come from the unvaccinated). As COVID becomes endemic about 50,000-75,000 will die annually because we will never get 100% of the population vaccinated. COVID is not going away.

We need to learn to live without fear and move forward because our best days are still ahead of us. Getting the vaccine is the right move, but it is still a free country and everyone should be free to choose.

Onward!

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My Current View on the Economy /  by Guest User

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I follow many of the top ecomomic thinker blogs and in a recent post on Calafia Beach Pundit, Scott Grannis summarizes my thoughts exactly on current market conditions. 

Conditions in the US look fantastic these days. Prices for lots of goods and services are soaring. Retails sales are at all time highs. Job openings are at record highs. Financial markets are awash in liquidity, and financial market conditions in general are about as good as they have ever been. Debt service burdens for most people are at all-time lows. The stock market is on the cusp of new all-time highs. Corporate profits are booming. Air travel is surging.

“Private sector jobs have recovered almost 70% of what they lost due to the Covid-19 shutdown. ”

The economy has recovered just about all it lost to the Covid-19 crisis. Household net worth is at all-time highs in nominal, real and per capita terms. Private sector jobs have recovered almost 70% of what they lost due to the Covid-19 shutdown. Vaccines and natural immunity have all but vanquished Covid-19. Conditions are improving daily, with no near-term end in sight. On the inflation front, expectations currently remain reasonably anchored at around 2.5%.

South Box Openings & Closings: April 2021 /  by Guest User

South includes: AL, GA, NC, SC, TN, VA

Openings: 87 stores

Ace Hardware Corporation: 5
American Freight: 2
At Home: 1
Bealls Outlet: 1
Best Buy: 1
Big Lots: 1
Burlington Coat Factory: 1
Crunch Fitness: 1
Dollar General: 30
Dollar Tree: 3
Family Dollar Stores: 4
Five Below: 6
Food Lion/Delhaze: 14
Habitat for Humanity: 1
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 1
Hobby Lobby: 1
Lidl: 2
Marshall’s: 1
Old Navy: 1
Piggly Wiggly: 1
Planet Fitness: 4
Target: 1
TJ Maxx: 1
True Value Company: 1
Winn Dixie: 1

Closings: 149 stores

Bed Bath & Beyond: 1
Best Buy: 1
Big Lots: 1
BI-LO: 101
Citi Trends: 1
Dollar General: 8
Ethan Allen: 1
Family Dollar Stores: 2
Harveys Supermarket: 16
K & W Cafeteria: 2
Marshall’s: 1
Michaels Stores: 1
Pet Supplies Plus Inc.: 2
Piggly Wiggly: 2
Sears Appliance: 2
True Value Company: 4
Walgreens: 2
Winn Dixie: 1

South Box Openings & Closings: Februrary 2021 /  by Guest User

South includes: AL, GA, NC, SC, TN, VA

Openings: 55 stores

Ace Hardware Corporation: 2
Aldi: 1
American Freight: 3
Big Lots: 2
Citi Trends: 1
Dollar General: 17
Dollar Tree: 4
Family Dollar Stores: 2
Five Below: 4
Habitat for Humanity: 1
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 1
Hobby Lobby: 3
HomeGoods: 3
La-Z-Boy Incorporated: 1
Lidl: 1
Marshall’s: 2
Michaels Stores: 1
Piggly Wiggly: 2
Planet Fitness: 1
Rooms To Go: 1
Walgreens: 2

Closinsg: 32 stores

American Freight: 1
Badcock Furniture: 1
Bed Bath & Beyond: 6
Belk Department Store: 1
Big Lots: 2
Citi Trends: 1
Crunch Fitness: 1
Dick’s Sporting Goods: 1
Dollar General: 3
Family Dollar Stores: 2
Gabe’s Discount: 1
Goodwill: 1
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 1
Kirkland’s, Inc.: 1
La-Z-Boy Incorporated: 1
Michaels Stores: 2
Piggly Wiggly: 1
Staples: 1
True Value Company: 1
Walgreens: 2
Wal-Mart: 1

Texas Box Openings & Closings: Februrary 2021 /  by Guest User

Openings: 27 stores

Ace Hardware Corporation: 1
Aldi: 1
CVS: 1
Dick’s Sporting Goods: 1
Dollar General: 9
El Rancho Supermarket: 1
Family Dollar Stores: 1
Five Below: 2
Floor and Decor: 1
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 2
Michaels Stores: 2
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet: 2
Ross: 1
Tom Thumb: 1
Walgreens: 1

Closings: 6 stores

Dollar General: 2
Pet Supplies Plus Inc.: 1
Regal Cinemas: 1
Rooms To Go Kids: 1
Walgreens: 1

Florida Box Openings & Closings: February 2021 /  by Guest User

Openings: 28 stores

Aldi: 1
Burlington Coat Factory: 3
CVS: 1
Dick's Sporting Goods: 1
Dollar General: 9
Five Below: 4
Habitat for Humanity: 1
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 1
Michaels Stores: 2
Pet Supplies Plus Inc.: 1
Rooms To Go: 1
Rooms To Go Kids: 1
Ross: 1
TJ Maxx: 1

Closings: 11 stores

Bed Bath & Beyond: 3
Books A Million: 2
Dollar General: 1
Michaels Stores: 1
Planet Fitness: 1
Publix: 2
TJ Maxx: 2

What Do The Anchor Tenant Sales Tell Us? /  by Guest User

Illustration by Hugo Lin. ThoughtCo.

Illustration by Hugo Lin. ThoughtCo.

The short answer is not much. I determined this several years ago at my cottage on the Saint Lawrence River.

  1. First, I plotted on the x-axis the actual sales for over 100 stores operated by a large grocery chain in Florida.

  2. Next, I plotted two different values for each center on the y-axis: a) the center’s occupancy rate and b) the center’s asking rental rate.

If the sales were correlated with either item then the (x,y) points would follow a straight line. Unfortunately, the plot looked like a shotgun blast. There was no correlation between the grocery anchor’s sales and either center’s rents or occupancy level. In other words, the sales did not convey any information about the rest of the center.

So, the next time some genius goes on and on about how good their center is because the grocery anchor or any other anchor has “high sales”, just let them know that there is no correlation with anything meaningful. Now you are the genius.

Onward!

Covid Strategies /  by Guest User

Scott Alexander is brilliant and his post describing the future and our long term relationship with COVID is a must read. Summary: COVID is likely never going away and so we need smart strategies to deal with it like giving vaccine manufacturers the ability to adapt their vaccine formulas in response to mutations without going back through the long FDA approval process. Think smart, play for the long game!

Repost from Scott Alexander
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Coronavirus: Links, Discussion, Open Thread

Will things get worse before they get better?

South Box Openings & Closings: January 2021 /  by Guest User

South includes: AL, GA, NC, SC, TN, VA

Openings: 46 stores

Ace Hardware Corporation :2
Aldi: 1
AMC: 1
American Freight: 1
Ashley Furniture: 1
Badcock Furniture: 1
Citi Trends: 1
Crunch Fitness: 3
Dollar General: 13
Dollar Tree: 1
Family Dollar Stores: 7
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 3
Haverty's Furniture: 1
Lidl: 1
Pet Supplies Plus Inc.: 1
Piggly Wiggly: 3
Planet Fitness: 2
Publix: 1
True Value Company: 1
Walgreens: 1

Closings: 38 stores

Ace Hardware Corporation: 2
AMC: 1
Ashley Furniture: 2
Bed Bath & Beyond: 4
Burlington Coat Factory: 1
CVS: 3
Dick's Sporting Goods: 3
Dollar General: 1
Family Dollar Stores: 1
Gabe's Discount: 1
Habitat for Humanity: 2
Michaels Stores: 1
O2 Fitness Club: 1
Office Depot: 4
Office Max: 2
Party City: 1
Petco": 3
Save-A-Lot: 4
Walgreens: 1

Vaccine Access Toolkit /  by Guest User

All of us need to take strong positive action within our communities to help with the recovery from the coronavirus. I was shocked to read this posting because somehow during the lockdown I failed to realize that government action alone was not the solution. Instead action by individuals and business leaders would bring forth the solutions we need. Sometimes you missed the obvious and for me this was one of those times.

Thankfully, the genius, Tyler Cowen, through his writings on his blog shows the clear path forward. I hope you'll follow me in doing more this year to be the change that we want to see happen in the world. Wake up, it's time to get moving.

Repost from Marginal Revolution

In order to break down the information barrier, I partnered with my local faith community to set up a vaccine outreach program. We have a dedicated vaccine information email address and a website consolidating information about vaccine eligibility, sites, and benefits. We call community members who don’t have email, offer personal assistance making appointments and connecting to ride services, and provide information about best practices for riding safely in a car with masks and open windows. After vaccine appointments, we check in to see how they are feeling, make sure their second dose is scheduled, and offer to drop off comfort foods. One recipient replied, “It makes this daunting time just a little easier knowing there is someone out there to guide one through this process. My technology skills are minimal!”

By Margaret Scharle, for Oregon.  We need much more of this.

How can you see the future? /  by Guest User

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Here is what I use to see the future

Here is what I use to see the future

How can you see the future? Unfortunately, there is no crystal ball, but the next best thing is the prediction markets that harvest the wisdom of the crowds to come up with the best guess for the future. Predictions based on betting, date back to 1503 when bets were placed to predict the next Pope.

What do you use? Please post it to the comments. #future #investing #retail #markets