When I was born there were only 3.0B people. Today there are nearly 8.0B and somehow, in the last 60 years, we managed to thrive. The world population is projected to reach 9.9 billion by 2050, an increase of more than 25% from the current 2020 population of 7.8 billion. Total fertility rates are below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman in 91 countries and territories, mostly in Asia and Europe, as well as in the United States. What a great time to be alive. Notice that the world's population growth rate is dropping like a rock. America is still the leader. Let's all help keep it that way.
2020 Top 10 U.S Retail E-commerce Companies /
Today nearly 15% of all US retail sales are from e-commerce. Our forecast is that by 2030, nearly 30% of retail sales will be generated on-line. This transformation from a brick and mortar economy to an omni-channel model will vastly improve the customer experience. It will also require massive investment, innovation, training and retooling. Soon we will all live like the Jetsons. Change is good.
Here is e-Marketer’s listing of the 2020 top 10 U.S retail e-commerce companies ranked by sales.
Amazon: $309.58
Walmart: $46.20
eBay: $38.61
Apple: $27.51
The Home Depot: $16.71
Best Buy: $15.70
Target: $13.82
Wayfair: $11.66
Kroger: $11.28
Costco: $11.18
Figures are in Billions.
The PG 100: Walmart, Amazon, Kroger Dominate Top Retailers of Food and Consumables /
Repost from ProgressiveGrocer.com
The 2020 edition of Progressive Grocer’s annual ranking of leading retailers of food and consumables has changed in several notable ways. The list now reflects a more comprehensive view of the universe of retailers active in food and consumables categories and the geographic areas in which these retailers operate. This enlightened approach resulted in the creation of The PG 100: North America’s Top Retailers of Food and Consumables. It also marks a shift from the long-running Super 50 ranking, which focused on U.S.-only retailers that fit a more traditional definition of a grocer or supermarket.
Why the change? Why does anything in retail change? Because consumers have changed, and in some pretty dramatic ways. Where and how they shop for food, what they eat, how they live, their lifestyle priorities and drivers of purchase behaviors have evolved considerably from a decade or two ago. And more change will come as consumers adjust to life after COVID-19.
As consumers have changed, so has the nature of competition. The world of food and consumables is filled with innovation and nontraditional competitors that now sell lots of food and consumables, but don’t spring to mind when one hears the word "grocer" or "supermarket." In addition, many retailers, whether based in the United States, Canada or Mexico, operate throughout North America. The PG 100 accounts for these new competitive dynamics as they exist today and increasingly will affect the industry going forward.
Creating a list of this type is an inexact science, as there are large numbers of privately held companies that are quite secretive about details of their operations. Nevertheless, to create the PG 100, we relied on public and private sources, diligent research and proven forecasting methodologies employed by financial analysts to generate reliable sales estimates.
In total, the companies on this year’s PG 100 grew sales by 5.7% to $1.869 trillion from $1.768 trillion the prior year. That’s an impressive rate of growth for an industry often regarded as mature, which speaks to the level of innovation and the rapidly evolving and expansive competitive landscape that warranted creation of a new industry benchmark: The PG 100.
Happy Birthday Publix /
Happy Birthday Publix you are almost 100! We are often excited by the new things in life. But perhaps we're better off to consider the things that have endured well past any reasonable expectation. Last year, in September, Publix Supermarkets celebrated their 90th anniversary. In just 10 years, Publix will be one of the few companies to celebrate 100 years in business. The first Publix store did just $120,000 in sales in 1930.
Today, the company does over $40 billion in sales and has over 1,250 stores. I remember as a kid meeting George Jenkins, Publix's founder, at a store grand opening and was so impressed by his energy and accomplishments. Every new store was a moment to celebrate for the founder. Are you building a company that will last for 100 years? If so, there are many valuable lessons to learn from studying Publix. I recommend finding a copy of the book that was published to celebrate Publixes 75th anniversary which lays out the history of the company and studying it. It'll make you a better businessperson.
Commercial Real Estate Rental Streams /
Every once and awhile you see something that leaves you speechless. This chart is from a report just issued by Eastdil Secured and it hit me like a gut punch. I couldn't believe that I had missed something that was so obvious. All of the major classes of commercial real estate over the last 15 years have grown their rental streams by 3-4% annually. But there is one glaring exception, and that is retail properties which did not have any rental growth over the last 15 years. Now, during that period, retail sales grew by 3.75% per year, and yet, retail is still at the levels of 2005. That is shocking. What do you think about this? Please post a comment.
2020 Sales: Florida Major Markets /
These are 2020 sales in Florida major markets: Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Orlando, Tampa and Jacksonville.
If you find something is missing or in error, please send an email to lhoyer@woolbright.net.
2019 Sales: Florida Major Markets /
These are 2019 sales in Florida major markets: Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Orlando, Tampa and Jacksonville.
If you find something is missing or in error, please send an email to lhoyer@woolbright.net.
2018 Sales: Florida Major Markets /
These are 2018 sales in Florida major markets: Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Orlando, Tampa and Jacksonville.
If you find something is missing or in error, please send an email to lhoyer@woolbright.net.
Walmart vs Amazon /
My favorite players in the chess game of the retail marketplace is number 1 ranked Walmart, the grandmaster, vs up-and-comer "Beth Harmon", Amazon. Watching this game play out is better than watching the Queen's Gambit on Netflix. Notice how Walmart's growth has followed the classic "S-Curve" and Amazon is still in their hockey stick explosive growth phase.
Who knows how this one ends?
Top 10 US Retailers /
In the last 30 years, the forces of creative destruction blasted away on the top 10 retail performers. Today, only 4 remain on the top 10 list and the other 6 are gone forever. Was that 30 year struggle an apocalypse? Not at all, it's just the innovative cycle that makes America the strongest nation in the world.
Every 15 years, half of the S&P 500 companies are dropped from the list. The same is true for the top 10 US retailers. Which 5 companies will get dropped from this list by 2035? I wish I knew, but whatever happens we will all be much better off.
Grocery Store Growth /
Aldi now has over 2,000 US stores, which is the third most grocery stores in the US. Amazon's Whole Foods has 500 stores. Now, Amazon is rolling out Amazon Fresh which is expected to be a game changer for the US grocery marketplace. The largest retailer Walmart has basically stopped adding US stores and is instead focusing is domestic expansion efforts on its e-commerce platform for delivery and curbside pick up. Please watch this two minute video of Walmart's US expansion to get an idea of just how fast Aldi and Amazon can grow their US base - it will blow your mind. New cool things are always coming. There is no retail apocalypse. Simba beats Scar!
South Box Openings & Closings: Nov-Dec 2020 /
South includes: AL, GA, NC, SC, TN, VA
Openings: 118 stores
Ace Hardware Corporation: 3
Aldi: 8
American Freight: 8
Ashley Furniture: 2
Badcock Furniture: 1
Bealls Outlet: 1
Citi Trends: 1
David's Bridal: 1
Dollar General: 35
Dollar Tree: 4
Electronic Express: 1
Family Dollar Stores: 9
Habitat for Humanity: 2
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 3
Hobby Lobby: 1
Lidl: 2
Lowe's Foods: 3
Office Depot: 3
Office Max: 1
Ollie's Bargain Outlet: 2
Party City: 1
Pet Supplies Plus Inc.: 3
Piggly Wiggly: 1
Planet Fitness: 6
Publix: 7
Save-A-Lot: 2
True Value Company: 3
Walgreens: 1
Wegmans Food Markets: 1
Whole Foods: 2
Updated: 2/9/2021
Closings: 100 stores
Ace Hardware Corporation: 1
AMC: 1
American Freight: 3
Ashley Furniture: 1
Bed Bath & Beyond: 7
buybuy Baby: 1
Cost Plus World Market: 2
CVS: 8
David's Bridal: 1
Dick's Sporting Goods: 2
Dollar General: 9
Dollar Tree: 1
Ethan Allen: 1
Family Dollar Stores: 7
Golf Galaxy: 1
Goodwill: 1
Habitat for Humanity: 3
Harris Teeter: 1
JC Penney: 28
La-Z-Boy Incorporated: 1
Office Depot: 3
Office Max: 3
Pet Supplies Plus Inc.: 1
Planet Fitness: 1
Regal Cinemas: 1
Ross: 1
True Value Company: 4
Walgreens: 6
Texas Box Openings & Closings: Nov-Dec 2020 /
Openings: 46 stores
Ace Hardware Corporation: 1
Aldi: 1
Cinemark USA: 1
Citi Trends: 3
Crunch Fitness: 1
CVS: 3
Dollar General: 9
Dollar Tree: 3
Family Dollar Stores: 3
Five Below: 2
Floor and Decor: 1
Harbor Freight Tools USA: 5
Office Depot: 4
Old Navy: 1
Ollie's Bargain Outlet: 2
Pet Supplies Plus Inc.: 2
Petco: 1
Planet Fitness: 1
Ross: 2
Updated: 2/9/2021
Closings: 49 stores
24 Hour Fitness: 1
AMC: 1
Barnes & Noble: 1
Bealls Department Store (Stage): 5
Bed Bath & Beyond: 6
Cost Plus World Market: 3
Dollar General: 2
JC Penney: 1
Office Depot: 1
Office Max: 5
Powerhouse Gym: 1
Ross: 1
Staples: 1
You Are Never Too Old /
You are never too old. At 43, Tom Brady commandingly won the Super Bowl. Next to him in this photo is Ray Kroc, the founder of McDonalds. Ray quit his job as a Dixie Cup salesman at age of 52 to open his first McDonalds. Ray’s story is told in one of my favorite books: Grinding It Out.
Time and time again, I am amazed at the fantastic things people accomplish in the latter half of their careers – it’s never to late, just go for it.
Bitcoin - Maintain Perspective of Reality /
There is about $90T in global currency and about $700B or less than 1% of it is bitcoin. Stay away from the shinny nickels and focus on the big picture. Always maintain perspective of reality.
Why did SEG/Winn Dixie cancel their IPO? /
First, it’s rare a company cancels and IPO. Second, Winn Dixie matters – they have just over 400 stores and about $10B in sales. Now, let’s say you are offered to buy or lease a Winn Dixie anchored shopping center. Clearly, you would want to know the future prospects of Winn Dixie. Is there a sale or merger in the works? Is the company in trouble? Or was the timing just bad?
Price Chopper Merger /
In order to complete against larger and better capitalized groups like Walmart, Amazon, Kroger and Aldi, Price Chopper and Tops are merging. Does this merger portend a trend in the grocery sector? Stay tuned, I think it does.
US Retail Growth /
US retail sales grow occurs at a steady rate of 3.75% annually. Half the growth is from inflation and the balance is in volume. Over the next 10 years, all of the volume gains will be from the e-commerce component which today, is 15% of the total. The brick and mortar component will remain flat for the foreseeable future. Thus, the US retail system doesn’t need any new brick and mortar space until about 2030. At that time e-commerce will account for 30% of sales.
That’s why Walmart stopped building new stores and made massive investments in their e-commerce platform.
Focus on the facts and do not follow your gut. Onward!
FL COVID Update /
As of today, Florida has vaccinated about 2.0M people, 85% of whom are over 65. At this rate, Florida is on track to vaccinate its 4-5 million residents over age 65 in the next 4-6 weeks. Since about 80% of the state’s deaths and hospitalizations have been for those over 65, this is a godsend. Thanks to all those who are working hard to make this happen! Our best days are just ahead.
Hat tip to @jhaskinscabrera on Twitter
The Retail Circle of Life /
Risk analysis: what if every financially weak big box tenant in the US went out of business? Big box retailers are 80% of the US retail platform. The way they go portends the state of the whole system. Most markets in the US are severed by about 100 big box brands – everything from Walmart to Walgreens.
Today, in each major US market, about 20 of the 100 big box companies are suffering financial stress. Many had problems well before COVID. Back in April of 2020, I realized that these weak tenants accounted for only about 6% of US retail space and, more surprisingly, they accounted for only 3% of the sales. If all the weak box retailers shut down, the remaining 80 retailers could easily absorb their sales.
About two thirds of these weak firms have already filed bankruptcy and most of them have reemerged with a fresh start and only a handful have been liquidated. A few others, like AMC Theaters have raised capital without bankruptcy. The system is very resilient. There is no retail apocalypse. It’s the circle of life – Simba defeats Scar.